9.98% profits banked in December already so I'm taking my holidays early.

Dear Investors/Traders,

It pays to trade much more than it pays to invest. For 3 years now I have been using a system that trades on the first hour of the market open every day. We never hold a position overnight, we don't spend longer than an hour in the market and we never risk more than 1% on any one trade.

We look for market inefficiencies, since markets tend towards efficiency we just trade in the most probable direction the market wants to go. Using our low risk model we are able to teach experts and beginners to bank returns in excess of 8% a month consistently. Below are my personal and client account trading returns for the month of December so far.

How would you like to be getting these kind of returns on your money. With $10,000 you are looking at $998 for the month of December. With $100,000 invested you are looking at $9,980 for the month.

Merry Christmas & A Happy & Abundant New Year to All.

Retire Me Rob
Beach Road, Lamai
Ko Samui, Thailand
robmcmanus@gmail.com
+66 98 4836885

Stock Market nearing an all time high. What does it mean for Investors ?

Today sees the first rain we've had in Ko Phangan in 3 months or so. It's magnificent when it rains here because it's so rare and it gives me an opportunity to send a free market and portfolio update. First of all January was a stellar month for the stock markets. Record returns all round. Our stocks FF & FNF were highly profitable. The one surprise of the last few months was Apple dropping from a high of 700 in September to 450 as of today. We had a loss on Apple but who didn't. At 500 it was at a very strong support level, represented a massive bargain and still does. It is still a value stock. The fundamentals are incredible. The problem is that value plays can take a long time to mature. Also value investing only works when markets are going up.

The reality is that the stock market following the huge surge in January is currently only 1.5% away from it's all time high back in October 2007 the month I moved to Asia. 

The big question I have for value investors is do you really want to be the one holding the largest cap stock in the stock market at an all time high. The value investing case is of course that over long periods of time stocks continue to rise. My argument is that if you were a buyer back in October 2007 it would have taken you until 2013 (5 1/2 years) to get back to break even. In 5 1/2 years you could have easily doubled, tripled or quadrupled your money in more wise investments.

Now, I'm not saying that Apple is a bad buy here. Everyone is confused as to what's going on with the Apple stock. It could turn out to be a safe haven value play when the market corrects. However I don't like to gamble on such long term possibilities. In other words I don't like to be stuck holding an investment for an indefinite period of time. I like to get in take the money and run.

That brings me to our February portfolio. Our bet for February was a move sideways to slightly up. We bought a complex option spread which expires at full profit in March if the market goes down, sideways or up by less than 3.5%.  The market added 8% for the month of January another 1.5% and we hit the all time high. Once the all time high gets hit we will get a big correction - Guaranteed. The market never makes a new high without a correction.

So my bet is that the market stumbles along for the next 3 months and we make money selling complex option spreads like the one we have for February. If we hit the all time high sooner then I implement my market short portfolio.

I have been busy for the last few months putting together the perfect market short portfolio. I will be sharing it with my subscribers this coming week. All you have to do is wait for the market to take out the all time high. I will send an email alert anyway to notify you when this happens and you place the trades and enjoy the correction.

In March 2000 I sold 85% of my stock 3 weeks prior to the crash. In October 2007 I sold 90% of my stock and held one discount retailer that would and did thrive in the market correction. I've been in the markets since 1997 and this is my third time seeing this market cycle. I have never been more prepared.

If you would like access to my market short portfolio and get access to my trade alerts you can sign up for a 1 month trial of my trade alert service at half price. Just click the link below.

 

Adjusting your sails and changing tack quickly.

Dear Investors,

When I was windsurfing one day at the age of 14 I had the privilege of being asked to crew for the most competitive racing yacht in the sailing club. I was small, strong and I could move fast. Perfect for yacht racing. I worked hard and learned fast and at the age of 16 we won a Gold medal in the national championships. 

The first few months of training were hard. Rope burn, sore muscles, getting hit on the head by the boom. However after a while your senses became sharper, you move quicker and with more confidence. Almost sensing that it's time to change. You know the tides. You know the currents. You know where the lifts are and where you'll get headed. With knowledge, experience and the right mentors and coaches you get better. 

Trading is similar in that you got to stay on your course but if the wind changes you have to act quickly or you're out of the game. The good news is that the institutions and hedge funds that make up the most capital in the market cannot move so quickly. If you are a racing yacht. They are an oil tanker. An oil tanker can take a mile to change course I know I've worked on a few of them. 

As an independent trader  you can change course in a heart beat. You can also out run any large hedge fund.  

Because of the need for board approval and authorization it takes up to 2 weeks for most hedge funds to react to changing news. The news by the Fed yesterday is going to have huge implications for the end of year portfolios. Hedge funds may not be able to act quickly enough to capitalize on it but you can. 

Right now I have a very special Christmas offer for new subscribers. 

My Trade Alert Service is usually

£67 per month BUT you can now try it out for one month at HALF PRICE - just £33.50! To sign up you can either click here or click on the PayPal button below.

November Portfolio Report

Dear Investors,

November 2012 was an outstanding month for our portfolio with a 22.2% portfolio return for the month. The Wall Street Proverb "Sell in May and buy in November" worked great for us this year.

Subscribers of record back in November 2011 will remember it as the month we shorted bonds with the TBT bond short trade my biggest mistake of 2011. We took a 6.39% loss for the month of November as a result. Ben Bernake still owes me big time for that one. 

This November Hurricane Sandy gave us an amazing opportunity as hurricanes always do and we were well prepared to capitalize on it. 22.2% stands as the best monthly return since May 2012 which was 33.47%. 

The big mistake of 2012 was being overweight Gold going into October. Gold took a hammering in October leading to a 13.65% portfolio loss for the month.

I scaled our Gold positions back took the loss and got ready for the hurricane recovery.

After the post hurricane sell off I went long the stock market with Google, Apple and S&P500 options. I also shorted Oil two times, shorted the Yen and took 6 3 day shorts on the S&P500 all these positions were profitable.

We did not have any losing positions for the month of November apart from a few insurance options I took out on the Russell, S&P500 & Apple (whose market cap makes up 20% of the S&P500). These continue to act as a hedge for our portfolio.

For December I expect a strong end of year rally like last year. The fiscal cliff discussions are effecting the markets negatively. However, I do not see anything being resolved until January at least. The end of year rally will overpower the fiscal cliff worries.

I expect some sharp temporary pullbacks during the rally in the market throughout December. I have expanded my strategies to include a weekly 3 day option trade to capitalize on sharp market pullbacks. In the last 2 months we placed 6 trades which were all profitable.

Our portfolio is in a very strong position entering December. The hurricane recovery is far from over and we are ideally positioned to capitalize on the Christmas buying season.

Hedge Fund Managers around the world are all buying into the market now to put the window dressing on their end of year portfolio returns.

You still have a chance to grab a 6 month trial of my video trade alert service for $997.

 

Action takers will be rewarded.

 

The Santa Claus Effect

Dear Subscribers,

The markets rallied on Monday in anticipation of the Thanksgiving holiday and we achieved a total return of 18% across the board on our $100,000 portfolio in one day. Hurricane Sandy and the Election in the U.S. caused the markets to become incredibly oversold and opportunities are now everywhere.

Our portfolio is currently diversified with:

• A Biofuel company that pays a one off special dividend of 10% to shareholders of record in less than 2 weeks. 10% for a 2 week trade ? That is a 240% annualized ROI !!!!

•  A currency trade that has been profitable every time we have bought it this year !!!!

• A Gold trade that profits, if Gold goes up, sideways or down by up to 5% !!!!

• An Opportunity of a Lifetime to acquire an incredibly oversold world class company at a knock down price. Targeting a 400% return !!!!

3 of these trades are at or below my recommended entry level. The 4th trade is still a screaming buy !!!!

This is the end of year, a time when fund managers all over the world go long for the Christmas spending season (The Santa Claus Effect).

Subscribers who were the first to take action last week have profited already. 

There's still time !!!

I have decided to open up the 6 month trial offer to 5 more lucky subscribers !!!!

Opportunity of a Lifetime

There is a glaringly obvious opportunity in the markets right now. It looks like the markets have settled after the hurricane and the election.  Some great companies get incredibly oversold and present once in a lifetime opportunities. Right now is one of them. I am offering five 6 month trial slots of my Trade Alert service to 5 lucky investors out there. We are looking at a 500% profit on this particular trade between now and the end of December.  Action takers will be rewarded greatly.

There are many more trades we have right now in our portfolio but I have never seen an opportunity like this.

       

Dear Investors,

It is a terrible thing that is happening in New York right now and along the East Coast of the U.S. I have sent my best wishes to anyone I know over there. If anyone reading this is on the East Coast right now I wish you well. I hope that the hurricane will pass you by safely. Most people I have chatted with seem to have found shelter in the local pub. The Irish way.


While this may be devastating to many homes and businesses it also represents the best trading opportunity we can get.

September 11, the Gulf Oil Spill and the numerous hurricanes that have come and go during my trading career have been the most profitable time for me and investors who follow me.

It is always my suggestion to trade wisely and donate a % of your profits to the people in the effected area. That in my opinion is a great way to help the people who are affected by a natural disaster.

I have committed to giving 20% of all subscription fees and profits to subscribers and private clients on this database who experience financial loss as a direct result of this hurricane, please contact me and let me know who you are.

For subscribers and private clients not affected if you wish to donate a % of your profits from this event. I will connect you to the relevant parties. No charities the funds will go direct to the people involved.

How to Profit from a Hurricane

In order to explain this we will have to look at the term "Black Swan Theory" which was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book "The Black Swan".

The "Black Swan Theory" says that there are "Black Swan events" that have a major impact on the course of history.

It is assumed that all swans are white, so a black swan (which does in fact exist) is seen as being impossible and unexpected.

This is the same theory behind a "black swan event" - an event that is nearly impossible to predict. An event that is unpredictable and unexpected in even the most detailed and carefully calculated of probability models.

According to Taleb, "Black Swan events" have three characteristics:

1. It is a surprise.
2. It has a major impact.
3. People contend that they expected the event to take place (in hindsight).

Examples of "Black Swan events" would be 9/11, the gulf oil spill, hurricanes, the collapse of Russia or the invention of the Internet.

So we are in the midst of a black swan event. How should we invest. Well, the markets switched to "RISK ON" mid to late last week as fund managers seemed to think we had made it through an October without a significant correction. Earnings were not very positive Google & Apple disappointed.

I currently have no long positions in the portfolio. All our current positions are spreads which are the best way to manage exposure during this type of event. Our $100,000 portfolio has $50,000 invested in the markets with only $5,000 at risk. Meaning if all markets including Gold went to 0 tomorrow the maximum we could lose would by $5,000.

Initially word came out that NYSE would close Monday and algorithmic trading desks outside NY would keep the markets going. Subsequently it was decided that U.S. markets would close. Once markets open we will be shorting the companies that are highly exposed and bargain hunting for top companies that get oversold.

The next 2 months will be the most profitable time of the year for subscribers and private clients so I am offering a 6 month subscription to my video trade alerts for the first 10 subscribers for $479.
 
20% of which will go to the affected people in NY and the East Coast of America.

New Subscribers who availed of the 3 month subscription offer a few weeks ago already took profits on a two week oil bear spread I sent out. This trade expired at maximum profit for a gain of $2000 or 2% portfolio return.

I have 3 new trades for you when the market opens on Tuesday or Wednesday. If you can follow instructions by email and video you will be able to trade and learn.

This offer is only for the first 10 subscribers and expires on market open on Wednesday.

Happy Trading,
Retire Me Rob