Raise the stop on Lumber Liquidators ( LL) to $15.37.
Best Regards,
Robert McManus
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Monday, October 24, 2011
Premium: The Abundance Engineer October 2011 - Stock & Commodity Update
Headline - Stock & Commodity Update
See below for portfolio update.
Metals
We are still in a weekly sell signal and a daily sell on Gold as you can see from the chart below at a time of seasonal weakness for Gold which is indicated by the orange chart at the bottom. We may see Gold fall to 1550 and even 1400 over the next few days so we are holding our November Puts.
In the event of a fall in Gold, Silver could pull back temporarily to $20. We maintain our long position aswell as our Jan 2013 call options.
Currencies
We are entering seasonal strength for the Euro from now until January. We are just waiting on a buy signal and if we get one we are looking to buy the Euro on a pullback to 1.37 down to 1.365. Currently Euro is 1.382 and we expect it to rally up to 1.43 area. We will keep you informed.
We are also tracking Sugar on a possible move to the upside. I'll keep you posted.
Stocks
Overall Market Plan
We are expecting a run up in the market for the next few weeks from 1235 up to 1260 which will bring the S&P back to level for the year. We aim to get out of our stocks at this point and buy back in to some other sectors on a pull back to 1180.
I am cancelling Macys, LEG, CISCO, & SCX. The stocks pulled back but we never got filled. and they have now run away from us.
I am adding CB Richard Ellis Group -
CBG. Currently looking to buy on a pullback to fill the gap indicated on the chart at 14.68.
Risk is down to 13.30 range. Minimum upside target is previous consolidation and resistance area of $20.00.
Good risk Reward ratio. Risking $1 for $5. There is also good on balance volume move to the upside coupled with a buy Signal.
The portfolio is here.
"Whatever happens commodities win"
Best,
Robert McManus
Friday, October 21, 2011
The Abundance Engineer October 2011 - Free Trial of Our Stock Alerts
Headline - Free Trial of Our Stock Alerts
We have had a very good summer in the markets and now we are nearing end of year. There are certain seasonal market behavioural tendencies at this time of year that we like to take advantage of.
Rumours on Al Jazeira & Associated Press today say Gadaffi was killed. It would be the right timing. Osama was captured on the May weekend - the weekend of highest risk for a stock market crash. Gadaffi was caught today the aniversary of Black Monday.
The US will use this to buoy up themarkets and sneak in some liquidity. It's no coincidence we all know of course the US could have taken him out whenever they wanted.
To capitalize on the expected market rally I have added 9 new stocks to our portfolio which have all triggered buy signals this week. Our portfolio includes entry, exit, profit target as well as stop losses for each of the stocks.
Also included are our Silver & Gold strategies. Options, ETF's & Stocks. Long & Short. We have been short Gold since 28th of July and still expect a further correction. Our premium service will give you our short term price target for Gold.
We have been accumulating long positions at these low prices but are still holding onto our short positions for insurance.
The rising Dollar coupled withthe expected stock rally will likely bring further weakness in Gold & Bonds. We have very strategic techniques to capitalize on both of these markets.
All stocks have stop losses to insure against a Black Swan. Gold & Silver tend to benefit from Black Swan events so we are hedged in any event.
For those availing of the free trial I have to mention something about risk management. Although we cannot provide any investment advice I can tell you that personally in our own portfolio we aim to limit our options exposure to a maximum of 10% of our portfolio.
I am offering a free trial of theStock Alert premium service. Thefirst month will be free and you will get access to 9 new stocks that I have placed in the portfolio today.
Yours Sinceerly,
Robert McManus
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Premium: The Abundance Engineer October 2011 - Not out of the woods yet
Headline - Not out of the woods yet
Last night Dodd Frank held off on imposing further limitations on Gold ownership. However, it looks like another hike in margin requirements is imminent. We are still long Gold with an expectation of a short term correction to 1550.
I am expecting a stock rally as we traditionally get this time of year. This will bring down Gold and Bonds. I still expect our Bond ETF to pay off before Christmas.
I have added 9 specific undervalued stocks to the portfolio. These stocks are in strong seasonal sectors but I was holding off on adding them to the portfolio until apple came out with their earnings. The earnings came last night and disappointed. AAPL was down 10% in after hours trading. It has recovered well this afternoon to 3% down.
November and December are traditionally the strongest time of the year for stocks and we want to capitalize on this factor. The temporary correction in Gold we are expecting will be met with an upward run in stocks. Everyone on Wall Street & Washington wants a year end rally in the markets so I think it will happen.
AAPL is the deciding factor. Everytime Steve Jobs has left AAPL in the past the stock has tanked. It will happen again there is no leadership and noi innovation in AAPL without Steve Jobs. It is a matter of when. AAPL is now the largest company by market cap on the Nasdaq. When AAPL tanks it will be the same as Intel in 2000. It will take down the whole stock market with it.
I am looking to short AAPL on a rally back to 420. The Jan 2012 AAPL puts at a strike price of $300 are currently trading at 2.50 up from 1.90 yesterday. I have added AAPL puts to the portfolio aswell. I would advise you keep an eye on AAPL it's a matter of time.
In the meantime there may be some money to be made on Q4 market exhuberence. The 9 new stocks with buy price, exit price and stops have been added and can be found here.
Just make sure you have your stops well in place.
Best,
Robert McManus
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Premium Update
This dollar rally is far from over in my opinion.
I am still waiting for a possible correction in Gold to 1550 based on a further dollar rally. I would say it's a 50/50 chance so I do also have call options for Jan 2013. When I looked at the call premiums the other day the March 2012 ones seemed to be the best value we bought some for private clients.
We are holding the November Gold puts & the long term Gold & Silver calls and stocks.
Holding NG
Holding our bond shorts.
I expect a stock market year end rally at some stage. It is traditional and considering the recent sell off in the markets I expect that we will likely end up even for the year on the Dow. Right now it's still down for the year.
A little education:
The VIX volatility index is still too high at 33.32. Once it levels down a bit we will enter the market again. Traders tend to stay out once the VIX rises too significantly generally over 30 or 40. It crossed the 30 level back on August 4th and hasn't dropped below it since.
I will be in touch with some more investment ideas when the opportunities present.
Best Regards,
Robert
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Premium Update
We have seen Gold rise for 2 days in a row now. It now stands at 1667. I am looking to go short all the way up to 1720. I am hoping for a correction back to 1550, 1450 and possible 1350. As I mentioned the other day. November puts on GLD at the 150 strike are advisable. Gives us over a month to capitalize on the seasonal weakness of Gold in October November.
I am also looking at strategies for investing in the dollar index. The market seems to be coming to the conclusion that the US is a better investment than Europe. We may see the dollar rally quite a bit yet.
The dollar strength is bringing Crude down with Gold which are both entering seasonal weakness. We are looking to buy crude in or around it's typical December low period.
Natural Gas on the other hand is in a seasonally strong time and I am happy to hold the position.
I think it is wise to hold off on adding to Gold & Silver positions for now while the dollar is rising.
It is good we sold our Jan 2012 calls and bought 2013. It is unlikely that the Gold & Silver decline will last long but it could be a few months. A lot of the hedge funds now are getting into the dollar and so funds will move out of other investments including Gold.
Best Regards,
Robert
Robert
Monday, October 3, 2011
Premium Alert
t would be wise to invest in some insurance on the Gold and Silver positions in your portfolio on any upward moves in the gold price. If we see a rally on Monday November puts on GLD at or around the 140 - 150 strike place would be a wise play. While I still expect Gold to hit 2000 - 2500 this year.
It is always wise to buy your puts when the price is moving upwards and buy your calls when the price is moving downwards.
On or about October 4th Gold typically declines through the first week of November.
We are likely to see the dollar rally a lot more as a result of Operation Twist and bonds get hit. USD will probably be the best performing currency in the short term and that will have a negative effect on Gold as it is priced in dollars.
I will send a more detailed report during the week with some additional strategies.
Best Regards,
Robert
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