Sunday, December 18, 2011

The Abundance Engineer December 2011 - Gold Futures Higher, Jim Rogers & Trip to HK


Headline -  Gold Futures Higher, Jim Rogers & Trip to HK
Gold Futures moved higher Friday in line with seasonal strength beginning 17th December, it will be interesting to see what next few weeks has to offer. Time will tell if Gold is to become the ultimate currency.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-edge-higher-after-losses-2011-12-16?link=MW_story_latest_news

I had a meeting with Jim Rogers at his villa in Singapore on Saturday morning and we talked about our plans for 2012. Jim is famous for the Quantum Fund he ran with George Soros which returned 1400% for investors over a 10 year period. He retired at 37 and has been travelling the world for the last 25 years investing in emerging and fontier markets.


Our premium subscribers will be availing of the wisdom of Jim Rogers. You can take a free trial below.  


Buyers of Physical Gold & Silver I suggest you sit back, relax and enjoy the next few months. Any further declines are opportunities to buy more.

Hong Kong Trip
Myself and Louie who is on the left of the picture with his wife Jinnie are taking a trip over to Hong Kong & Shenzhen in late January. If you would like to join us on the trip we would be happy to accomodate you.

Our tailor Christine will make you any suit you want of Hugo Boss / Armani standard for $200, shirts $50, Silk Ties $25 anything you need.


If you want help opening up HK or SG bank accounts or offshore companies / trusts  we can arrange that for you aswell.

We will be spending a week in HK & Shenzhen. Louis lived there for a couple of years so you will have a local guide and you will be able to get anything you want of the highest quality for a lot less than you pay in most other countries.

We will also be visiting one of the best spas in Shenzhen which is a favourite of the local Hong Kong residents.

We only have space for 10 people email me for more info and to reserve your place.


Yours Sinceerly,
Robert McManus

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

The Abundance Engineer December 2011 - Gold at 200 Day Moving Average. Physical Buyers in Asia get excited.


Gold today broke the 200 Day Moving Average. In the Physical Gold business this is the most well established support level. This has remained unbroken for 2 and a half years. Physical Gold buyers are getting very excited. Gold Dealers are hoping buyers will wait until the price goes back up so that they can clear inventory they purchased over the last few months. 


We notified our subscribers last week of the tendency for Gold to dip in mid December so we were well prepared for this and we have  selected low risk trading strategies in our premium portfolio to profit from this. Now would be a good time to avail of a free trial for our premium alerts below. 


A few days ago I wrote this.

"Physical Gold & Silver buyers here is the dip. Get ready to buy if you've been sitting on the sidelines. 17th December to mid February is the strongest time of the year traditionally. This is lining up to be the 11th year in a row."

Nothing has changed everything is as it should be. Gold is currently at $1603. We were selling down hard at $1900 and did very well now we are buying hard and accumulating from $1603.    



Yours Sinceerly,
Robert McManus

New Trade Alert

Gold has fallen to the 200 Day MA. This is the strongest support we have for Gold. It has not broken the 200 Day MA since January 2009. See attached charts or yahoo chart link below. Expect a bounce here and this could be the bottom and strong support for a rally from here.  







This is very bullish Jan 2013 calls are expensive but worth it.

We are buying January 2013 calls with a strike price of 160. GLD130119C00160000 

We are also adding to the GLD ETF position.  
Best,
Robert McManus

Trade Update


It's been a rough week across all assets. Gold is at it's 200 Day and 3 of our stocks SCHW, DIS & NYX triggered their stops which were at or above break even and closed out.  

I took off the January AAPL put as we have not entered the trade and time value is decreasing fast. 

Revised portfolio is here:



Yours Sinceerly,

Robert McManus

Monday, December 12, 2011

Premium: The Abundance Engineer December 2011 - Discipline & Action


 Discipline and Action
The opportunities we are getting right now in the markets are exceptional and typical of this time of year. I mentioned that we seasonally see a dip in Gold in mid December and then 3 weeks of upward price movement. The best and safest strategy you could use right short of buying Physical Gold is to buy GLD ETF or Jan 2013 options. These are both  in our portflolio and are very attractively priced. This is a minimum 3-6 month trade. Gold as I write is under 1690 !!!!

Silver
Silver has a tendency to make a seasonal bottom in September, and then has a tendency to post major seasonal peaks in April. It tracks the price moves of Gold, but from a traders or investors perspective, it is considered the poor man's gold. Due to technology and the age of digital imaging, silver has lost a major portion of it’s industrial demand element because there is no longer a tremendous demand from the photo industry. It is still needed, however, for film and x-ray processing.

Silver prices are also subject to spikes in demand from the investment community, which uses silver as a hedge or protection from concerns over inflation or times of economic instability and uncertainties. Dollar weakness helps support silver’s value. Longer-term cyclical forces can dramatically impact the seasonal price moves of this market, like we saw in the June – August time period in 2007, just ahead of the credit bubble bursting and the onset of recession in December 2007.

The reason I am very bullish on Silver this week is that since 1986, there has never been a time when commercials (banks and institutions) held more longs than shorts on Silver contracts. The lowest for this indicator was +4.9% in July 1997 (not shown), before the Warren Buffett rally.   



It can also be noticed from the chart that whenever the % net shorts go down the price tends to move up. The general expectation in the Silver markets is that the commercials will have closed their short positions before the big move up in Silver. It looks like that may be happening now. 

Silver ETF SLV, SLW, Silver Stocks & Jan 2013 options are all a Strong Buy in our portfolio.

Cocoa
I still see strength coming in the Cocao markets in 2012 we will keep an eye out for an entry point. Here is a prediction from a friend. 


Copper
Copper prices tend to form seasonal bottoms during the month of December. Traders can look to go long on or about December 14th and hold until February 23. This trade in the last 38 year history has worked 28 times, for a success rate of 68.4%. Since 2001this trade has been profitable 8  out of 9 years and profittable every year since 2007. 


Commercials (red in the bottom indicator) have been establishing a long position as we move into seasonal strength (orange in middle indicator). Price will likely follow.

Copper and Cocao can be purchased using Futures contracts or spread betting spot price movement.  

Best,
Robert McManus

The Abundance Engineer December 2011 - Our Sri Lanka Fund - Top Performer


Headline -  Our Sri Lanka Fund -Top Performer
While our Premium subscribers have a very compelling reason to invest this Christmas and you will see why if you accept our free trial. I cannot think of a better time to invest there is so much opportunity in the markets now that I have not seen since Hurricane Katrina. 


There is a very strong compelling case for investing in some great commodities at thestrongest seasonal time of the year which is right now. Check out our free trial and see for yourself.


Our Commodities & Frontier markets Seminar with Jim Rogers is coming along well. We have scheduled it for early March. We are in talks with a number of sponsors. If anyone is interested in sponsoring or advertising do contact us. We are very excited to be hosting the great Jim Rogers and will be eagerly anticipating his wise words. 

The Sri Lankan fund that I spoke about a few weeks ago has been labelled the top performing fund in Sri Lanka in 2011. This article was just published in the Sri Lankan Financial Times


I met with Michael Priess a few weeks ago in Raffles Place and we discussed exactly what he says in this interview. 'What was ‘risky’ yesterday is not risky today and vice versa. Therisk in the west is rising while risk in Asia is declining.” '

Singapore currently has over 60 billionaires. Impressive for a country of 5 Million people. People like Jet Li, Jim Rogers & Eduardo Savarin of Facebook have all moved here in the last few years. Characterized by low risk, safety, security, comfort, luxury & ease of doing business it's hardly surprising that the rich are moving along with their money to Asia. If you invest wisely with the tide just follow the money you will likely do very well. As Jim Rogers says to me a lot of people are going to make a lot of money over here. 

If you are interested in the Sri lankan Fund emailme for more inforamtion. 

For those interested in learning more about Myanmar. I can recommend a great book written by Thank-Mint-U called Where India Meets China - Burma and the new crossroads of Asia. 

After reading this book you will realize preciselythe value that Myanmar (Burma) brings to thetable as one of the greatest ever investment destinations.  
  

Physical Gold & Silver buyers here is the dip. Get ready to buy if you've been sitting on thesidelines. 17th December to mid February is thestrongest time of the year traditionally. This is lining up to the 11th year in a row. 

While Governments warn things ar going to get worse next year they will get a lot better for owners of real assets. Be a victim or a proffiteer. Your choice. 



Yours Sinceerly,
 
Robert McManus

Premium Alert


Please see attached Silver Report for fundamentals on Silver Wheaton & other leading Silver companies. 

Best Regards,
Robert McManus

Saturday, December 10, 2011

New Trade Alert


We are still looking to buy puts on any big momentum shifts in the upward direction like we are seeling today. We are in a weekly sell signal and support is now at 1421. We will be looking to exit the trade on or before 1420.
 
Best Regards,
Robert McManus

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

The Abundance Engineer December 2011 - Gold's Final Seasonal Dip ? Jim Rogers says Myanmar is the best place to Invest now


Headline -  Gold's Final Seasonal Dip ? Jim Rogers says Myanmar is the best place to Invest now
This is it folks. If you were waiting on the sidelines for a time to enter the Gold & silver market this is it. Mid December to February are traditionally the strongest time of the year. 

Jim rogers was interviewed by Chris Waltzak yesterday and he reitterated that the inflation adjusted high for Gold is $2400 so it will hit that at least. How far above that figure it goes is anyones guess. I recommend you listen to the entire interview. I am well known for going out on a limb with a prediction from time to time based on solid quantitative and qualitative analysis. I predict Gold will hit $2400 by end of April 2012. Silver will hit $75 at least probably a whole lot more. 


If you listened to the end you will have heard Jim's take on Myanmar. "Myanmar is the best. If I could figure a way to put a lot of money to work in Myanmar I would never have to invest again. Today it's where China was in the December of 1978. They decided it didn't work for the past 49 years they're gonna try something new. Huge huge profits are going to be made in Myanmar."  

If you didn't listen -


An interesting article appeared in the International Business Times last week - 

New Israeli exhibition pulls 2000 visitors in 2 days. Israel’s first overseas property show TLV EXPO attracted more than 2,000 visitors last week with, the organisers told OPP, “most interest being registered in distressed properties in the US, Greece, Spain and the neighbouring island of Cyprus. The show was a great success.”

The two-day event took place in the port of Tel Aviv and, according to the organisers, “private investors, fund managers and local brokers were offered properties and investment opportunities in more than 20 countries. Read More

Could this be a low in property .........

New subscribers to our premium alerts are capitalizing on the seasonal strength in Equities that we have been witnessing over the last 2 weeks. There are still a few stocks in our portfolio below our buy price you can avail of our free trial below.  



Physical Gold & Silver buyers here is the dip. Get ready to buy if you've been sitting on the sidelines. 17th December to mid February is the strongest time of the year traditionally. this will be the 11th year in a row. 

While Governments warn things ar going to get worse next year they will get a lot better for owners of real assets. Be a victim or a profiteer. Your choice. 



Yours Sinceerly,
 
Robert McManus

Premium Stock Alert


Headline - Gold & Silver Stocks Added to Portfolio

Dear Premium Investors,
 
Another great week for our stocks. While we got stopped out on 2 stocks. The rest are up nicely and we have adjusted stops up to ensure we take profits off the table. The Bond position looks like it's not going to break in our favour in time. We will look at it again another time. 
 
While we expect the last seasonal dip of the year in Gold & Silver in the next few days I have decided to add some buy and hold Gold & Silver stocks to the portfolio. Buy on the dips all are on  US & Canadian exchanges. See our new portfolio here
 
We like Ivanhoe Mines in particular.
 
We feel IVN is one of the most overlooked gold companies today with the greatest upside potential. IVN has the potential to become one of the biggest gold winners that we ever come across.

IVN is currently focused in Mongolia where it owns what many people believe is the world's largest untapped copper-gold development project, Oyu Tolgoi, which is 80 km (50 miles) north of the China border. This project is world renowned and has been in development for over 4 years to date with an ultimate mine life that is expected to exceed 40 years!

Oyu Tolgoi comprises a rectangular block 10 x 9 kms in area, in which exploration prospects are named South Oyu, Southwest Oyu, Central Oyu and Hugo Dummett (North and South).

IVN is set to make history with its Oyu Tolgoi project and many people are not even aware of capitalizing on this rare investment opportunity.

What is extremely exciting to us is the fact that the second largest mining company in the world, Rio Tinto (RTP), has formed a strategic partnership by investing in IVN and, through an Ivanhoe-Rio Tinto Technical Committee, will jointly engineer, construct and operate Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mining complex! The agreement creates a defined path for Rio Tinto to become the largest shareholder in IVN.

Now that IVN has formed this joint venture with Rio Tinto it should allow them easy access to the capital they need to fully develop Oyu Tolgoi. Rio Tinto’s total investment in IVN may reach as much as $1.5+ billion!

In September 2006 IVN announced that an independent Integrated Development Plan (IDP) prepared by a joint venture between AMEC Americas Limited, of Vancouver, Canada, and Ausenco Limited, of Perth, Australia, with input from 12 other leading international engineering and environmental consultants, confirms the potential of IVN's Oyu Tolgoi Project in southern Mongolia to become one of the world's largest copper and gold producers and a model of environmentally-sound mineral development.

The independent study indicates that the Oyu Tolgoi Mine will be capable of average annual production in excess of one billion pounds of copper and 330,000 ounces of gold for at least 35 years. Peak annual production in excess of 1.6 billion pounds of copper and 900,000 ounces of gold is projected to be reached six years after initial production begins.

The IDP also indicates that Oyu Tolgoi could produce approximately 35 billion pounds of copper and 11 million ounces of gold over the projected, initial 35-year life of the mine, based on resources delineated to May, 2005.

A paramount priority for Ivanhoe Mines and its strategic partner, Rio Tinto, is the completion of an acceptable Investment Agreement with the Government of Mongolia to permit the investors to proceed with full-scale production of the Oyu Tolgoi mine and ore-processing complex.

The Mongolian Government is the only thing left holding IVN from getting the Oyu Tolgoi project into full production however we feel that the long time waiting is finally coming to an end very soon.

Since Mongolia's national general election in June 2008, Prime Minister Sanjaa Bayar, members of the Cabinet and members of the State Great Hural have publicly endorsed the objective of ensuring that Oyu Tolgoi is placed into production as quickly as possible. Speaking in September, the Prime Minister described his policy of "accelerated development" of Oyu Tolgoi and other large mineral deposits as an "historic" economic growth opportunity for Mongolia.

Recently, IVN announced that a draft agreement was approved in principle by the Mongolian Cabinet and National Security Council in March and Ivanhoe is awaiting Parliament's review and approval which has been said to be at the top of the Government's action agenda. You can read the press release here- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ivanhoe-Mines-Ltd-Mongolian-iw-14627771.html

As you can see, IVN seems to be right around the corner from receiving an agreement with the Mongolian Government! This could be the perfect time to invest into IVN before the potential big news!

Rio Tinto and IVN have spent more than US$1 billion on the project to date and underground construction has continued while they await the finalization of the investment agreement.

IVN is well positioned with quality assets and a significant cash position of approximately US$384 million.

IVN also holds interests in various mineral resource projects in the Asia Pacific region, including the Ovoot Tolgoi coal mine in Mongolia; the Cloncurry project for the exploration and development of copper, gold, and uranium in Queensland, Australia; and the Bakyrchik gold project in Kazakhstan.

IVN’s CEO John Macken is a leader in his field coming from a 19-year career with mining giant Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold, most recently as Freeport's Senior Vice-President of Strategic Planning and Development, based in New Orleans. He spent a total of 13 years with Freeport's operating unit, P.T. Freeport Indonesia, culminating in the position of Executive Vice-President and General Manager at Freeport's Grasberg mining complex in Papua, the world's largest single copper and gold mine. The company is now valued at over $18 billion!

With the most recent surge in copper prices and all the right characteristics forming to take gold to record highs during the upcoming years, there is no doubt in our minds that IVN with its Oyu Tolgoi property could become one of the biggest winners that we ever invest in.
 
Masa Igata of Frontier Securities, one of the largest Financial Institutions in Mongolia is a regular speaker for SGX here in Singapore. I include his most recent presentation which will give you a very good insight into the new Mongolia.
 
 
Another company I like is MGN 

MGN is a U.S. based mineral company focused on the acquisition and exploration of silver dominant mineral deposits. MGN's primary focus is on the advancement of the Montanore silver-copper project located in northwestern Montana, with a goal to ultimately become a new mid-tier producer of precious and base metals. 

MGN has 28.74 million shares outstanding and a market cap at $1.92 of $55.18 million. MGN is sitting on $21.98 million in cash and has no debt. After subtracting MGN's cash position from its market cap, MGN's actual business and property is being valued at only $33.2 million. 

MGN's Montanore silver-copper project located in Montana has a resource estimate of about 230 million ounces of silver and approximately 2 billion pounds of copper. Based on MGN's enterprise value of only $33.2 million, MGN's silver resource base is currently being valued at less than $0.15 per ounce! To the best of our knowledge, MGN's silver resource base has the lowest valuation per ounce in the entire industry. 

Silver prices have been starting to rally big once again over these past couple of days. Silver is now back above $35 per ounce and for MGN's estimated resource to be valued at less than $0.15 per ounce indicates to us that MGN has enormous upside potential. 

If MGN is successful at eventually building a mine at the project, MGN expects the project to process 12,500 tons of ore per day and produce 8 million ounces of silver and 60 million pounds of copper annually! 

MGN's project has excellent nearby infrastructure including a highway, railway, low cost power, and a large available supply of labor. It is located in one of the most prolific silver regions in the world, at the northern end of a trend extending south to the Coeur d'Alene Silver District, which has historically produced more than 1 billion ounces of silver. 

Earlier this year, MGN raised $15.2 million in a private placement at $2.96875 per share. MGN is currently trading at a discount of 35% from where the company raised $15.2 million by offering 5,120,000 shares of its stock to the public. 


"Whatever happens commodities win"
 
Best,
Robert McManus

Friday, December 2, 2011

Premium: The Abundance Engineer December 2011 - Commercials with Seasonal Strength


Headline - Commercials with Seasonal Strength
We have had a great week. All stocks and ETF's in our portfolio are up. I have raised all of the stops on our profittable trades to at or above break even. Adjust accordingly. Let's make sure we take some money off the table. 
One thing I noticed is that the Silver options SLW & SLV are down. That is why I have them in the portfolio they are a great leading indicator of directional changes in price movement. Statistically speaking Gold tends to run up to the 2nd of December then it sometimes takes a little dip in mid December before it runs up for the next few months. 
This is the reason we have options with a 2013 expiry it means we can weather any temporary corrections in the price. I will not be selling the options right now. However, if we do get a temporary correction I will look at adding to our position. 
Next, something I discovered today using a cycle finder tool - cycles are very important. It turns out that the time between the bottom on the 10th August and the bottom on the 4th October was 38 trading days. Interestingly enough it has been 55 calender days or 38 trading days between the 4th October bottom and the 28th November bottom.  
In fact if you look at the 6 vertical lines indicating the cycles we have had a correction on the last 5 points of the cycle followed by a rally and a fail. Repeating this cycle it is likely we will have a rally and a subsequent fail. That is why we have our stops in place this week on proffitable positions. On the fails by all means add Apple (AAPL) Puts to your portfolio. I see the big Apple crash coming in March or April. It could be as early January but unlikely. 
With regards to the Stock market we have the Santa Claus effect coming up which is bullish for the market. Then the January effect which we will look at later. The SC effect sees retail stocks perform well. Tech stocks do well as Santa buys all the new gadgets. Shoppers tend to take their kids to McDonanlds so we see profits go up there. Marriott and other hotel chains normally do well with all the Christmas parties also.
If we do have another failed rally we will likely see another run up immediately afterwards. If we get good news in Europe and the debt problems get sorted we will get an expolsion in price to the upside.
I talked about the relationship between the hedge funds and the commercials in the past. Fact is that when you and I get the news it's too late. Banks, institutions and their advisors (the commercials) have the information way before anyone else. 
One of the best runners at this timne of year is copper. Now while everyone is bearish in copper it actually sees seasonal strength right now. The orange line below is the seasonal average over the last 40 years. The red line at the bottom is the commercials. Now if you look at how the commercials follow the seasonal line they got short when they went below the line just as the seasonal line starts to drop. The price dropped accordingly and is in a consolidation phase. 
The orange line is now entering seasonal strength and the commercials are starting to get long. So now we have commercials (red), hedge funds (blue) and small speculators (green) all getting long as we enter seasonal strength. 
Statistically speaking the day to get long the copper market is the 14th December holding till February 23rd has had an accuracy rate of 68.4% since 1972. I am therefore looking at getting long copper on a pullback on or before 14th December. 
   
Commercials are also long stocks by the way. We had a rally and a pullback at a seasonal time for a rally and pull back. The commercials remain long and we enter seasonal strength.   
Our Short Bond Option TBT with the December expiry is getting close. As I said before bonds act inversely to stocks. A stock rally would be great for our bond option. Let's see I am not adding to it now. We have 2 weeks for this trade to turn proffitable.
Our updated portfolio is below.
  
May you all have a Golden Season again this year.
Best,
Robert McManus

Thursday, December 1, 2011

The Abundance Engineer December 2011 - Gold Up. Stocks Up. Euro Up. Myanmar - New Frontier.


Headline -  Gold Up. Stocks Up. Euro Up. Myanmar - New Frontier. 

Last Monday using seasonal strength indicators, commercial interest indicators & seasonal buy singal triggers I made some speculations regarding the market direction as quoted below - 

"As the Global markets continue the search for safety from debt contagion in Western economies money continues to move into Bonds, Dollars & Gold. We see a key reversal this week after Black Friday as Global Equities and the Euro get bought."

As ever the media insist on telling people to buy at the top of rallies and to sell at the dips. Using our fundamental seasonal and technical trigger approach we can seperate fact from media fiction. This allows us to invest with a higher degree of probability. As a result over the past week every stock & ETF in our portfolio is up. Our stop losses have been moved to insure guaranteed returns and we still can now enjoy any further upside moves.

There are still a few stocks in our portfolio below our buy price you can still avail of our free trial. This weeks special investor report outlining the opportunities in the markets in the coming months will be published today also. 



I made an offer of a 5% discount for any buyers of Gold or Silver before tomorrow or $1750. We got a lovely dip below $1700 and today we are at $1746 so the offer is still open. We may get another short dip between now and mid December but the next 3 months are generally strong for Gold and other select investments in our portfolio. 


Finally, I have been telling some of you in private for the last 2 years of the coming Myanmar fund. We were awaiting the restructure of the cabinet after the election last February. The opening of Myanmar is now progressing at light speed and we are excellently placed with a strong network in the country.

The agreed Chinese/Myanmar oil pipeline from the Indian Ocean through Myanmar to Kunming China offers the only alternative for oil trsansportation into China outside of the Straits of Malaccca through Singpaore. This could effect Singapore substantially and is the reason the U.S. are keen to get a foothold in Myanmar. After years of sanctions the U.S. want to do business.

Only a year ago I was in Myanmar and they would not accept my US Dollars as the US sanctions were hurting their economy so much they had no heart  for anything U.S.

Myanmar is opening up rapidly. 

2000 political prisoners were released a few weeks ago. 

Hillary Clinton just became the first U.S. official to visit Myanmar since 1962 when Myanmar was the wealthiest country in Asia. The military clamp down of freedoms and blocking of the currency closed the country off from outside investment for half a century. 

As an old friend of mine says "when the guns go down the prices go up'. It happened in Northern Ireland. It happened in Sri Lanka. It is happening now in Myanmar.   

Aung San Suu Kyi will leave Myanmar to attend the next World Economic Forum in Davos for the first leaving Myanmar since she arrived in the 90's. 

Jim Rogers has said he will be the first to invest in the Myanmar fund. I just got off the phone with him earlier today. We are having him as a keynote speaker at an event here in Singapore in early 2012. The event is focussed on Gold, Commodities, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Mongolia and other frontier markets. He told me it's perfect timing and investors will make a lot of money. He told me he is personally invested in Sri lanka right now.

Sri Lanka only opened up to outside investors in August 2011 so it is very fresh. There is a great Sri Lankan fund run by a friend of mine in Singapore and  backed by Deutsche Bank. The fund was up 60% in 2009. Email me for more info. 

I will be in touch again in the coming weeks and months on the progress of the Myanmar fund.

We also have a Gold fund that we are working on I will send more info on that in the coming weeks and months also.  

Yours Sinceerly,
Robert McManus