Adjusting your sails and changing tack quickly.

Dear Investors,

When I was windsurfing one day at the age of 14 I had the privilege of being asked to crew for the most competitive racing yacht in the sailing club. I was small, strong and I could move fast. Perfect for yacht racing. I worked hard and learned fast and at the age of 16 we won a Gold medal in the national championships. 

The first few months of training were hard. Rope burn, sore muscles, getting hit on the head by the boom. However after a while your senses became sharper, you move quicker and with more confidence. Almost sensing that it's time to change. You know the tides. You know the currents. You know where the lifts are and where you'll get headed. With knowledge, experience and the right mentors and coaches you get better. 

Trading is similar in that you got to stay on your course but if the wind changes you have to act quickly or you're out of the game. The good news is that the institutions and hedge funds that make up the most capital in the market cannot move so quickly. If you are a racing yacht. They are an oil tanker. An oil tanker can take a mile to change course I know I've worked on a few of them. 

As an independent trader  you can change course in a heart beat. You can also out run any large hedge fund.  

Because of the need for board approval and authorization it takes up to 2 weeks for most hedge funds to react to changing news. The news by the Fed yesterday is going to have huge implications for the end of year portfolios. Hedge funds may not be able to act quickly enough to capitalize on it but you can. 

Right now I have a very special Christmas offer for new subscribers. 

My Trade Alert Service is usually

£67 per month BUT you can now try it out for one month at HALF PRICE - just £33.50! To sign up you can either click here or click on the PayPal button below.

November Portfolio Report

Dear Investors,

November 2012 was an outstanding month for our portfolio with a 22.2% portfolio return for the month. The Wall Street Proverb "Sell in May and buy in November" worked great for us this year.

Subscribers of record back in November 2011 will remember it as the month we shorted bonds with the TBT bond short trade my biggest mistake of 2011. We took a 6.39% loss for the month of November as a result. Ben Bernake still owes me big time for that one. 

This November Hurricane Sandy gave us an amazing opportunity as hurricanes always do and we were well prepared to capitalize on it. 22.2% stands as the best monthly return since May 2012 which was 33.47%. 

The big mistake of 2012 was being overweight Gold going into October. Gold took a hammering in October leading to a 13.65% portfolio loss for the month.

I scaled our Gold positions back took the loss and got ready for the hurricane recovery.

After the post hurricane sell off I went long the stock market with Google, Apple and S&P500 options. I also shorted Oil two times, shorted the Yen and took 6 3 day shorts on the S&P500 all these positions were profitable.

We did not have any losing positions for the month of November apart from a few insurance options I took out on the Russell, S&P500 & Apple (whose market cap makes up 20% of the S&P500). These continue to act as a hedge for our portfolio.

For December I expect a strong end of year rally like last year. The fiscal cliff discussions are effecting the markets negatively. However, I do not see anything being resolved until January at least. The end of year rally will overpower the fiscal cliff worries.

I expect some sharp temporary pullbacks during the rally in the market throughout December. I have expanded my strategies to include a weekly 3 day option trade to capitalize on sharp market pullbacks. In the last 2 months we placed 6 trades which were all profitable.

Our portfolio is in a very strong position entering December. The hurricane recovery is far from over and we are ideally positioned to capitalize on the Christmas buying season.

Hedge Fund Managers around the world are all buying into the market now to put the window dressing on their end of year portfolio returns.

You still have a chance to grab a 6 month trial of my video trade alert service for $997.

 

Action takers will be rewarded.

 

The Santa Claus Effect

Dear Subscribers,

The markets rallied on Monday in anticipation of the Thanksgiving holiday and we achieved a total return of 18% across the board on our $100,000 portfolio in one day. Hurricane Sandy and the Election in the U.S. caused the markets to become incredibly oversold and opportunities are now everywhere.

Our portfolio is currently diversified with:

• A Biofuel company that pays a one off special dividend of 10% to shareholders of record in less than 2 weeks. 10% for a 2 week trade ? That is a 240% annualized ROI !!!!

•  A currency trade that has been profitable every time we have bought it this year !!!!

• A Gold trade that profits, if Gold goes up, sideways or down by up to 5% !!!!

• An Opportunity of a Lifetime to acquire an incredibly oversold world class company at a knock down price. Targeting a 400% return !!!!

3 of these trades are at or below my recommended entry level. The 4th trade is still a screaming buy !!!!

This is the end of year, a time when fund managers all over the world go long for the Christmas spending season (The Santa Claus Effect).

Subscribers who were the first to take action last week have profited already. 

There's still time !!!

I have decided to open up the 6 month trial offer to 5 more lucky subscribers !!!!

Opportunity of a Lifetime

There is a glaringly obvious opportunity in the markets right now. It looks like the markets have settled after the hurricane and the election.  Some great companies get incredibly oversold and present once in a lifetime opportunities. Right now is one of them. I am offering five 6 month trial slots of my Trade Alert service to 5 lucky investors out there. We are looking at a 500% profit on this particular trade between now and the end of December.  Action takers will be rewarded greatly.

There are many more trades we have right now in our portfolio but I have never seen an opportunity like this.

       

Dear Investors,

It is a terrible thing that is happening in New York right now and along the East Coast of the U.S. I have sent my best wishes to anyone I know over there. If anyone reading this is on the East Coast right now I wish you well. I hope that the hurricane will pass you by safely. Most people I have chatted with seem to have found shelter in the local pub. The Irish way.


While this may be devastating to many homes and businesses it also represents the best trading opportunity we can get.

September 11, the Gulf Oil Spill and the numerous hurricanes that have come and go during my trading career have been the most profitable time for me and investors who follow me.

It is always my suggestion to trade wisely and donate a % of your profits to the people in the effected area. That in my opinion is a great way to help the people who are affected by a natural disaster.

I have committed to giving 20% of all subscription fees and profits to subscribers and private clients on this database who experience financial loss as a direct result of this hurricane, please contact me and let me know who you are.

For subscribers and private clients not affected if you wish to donate a % of your profits from this event. I will connect you to the relevant parties. No charities the funds will go direct to the people involved.

How to Profit from a Hurricane

In order to explain this we will have to look at the term "Black Swan Theory" which was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book "The Black Swan".

The "Black Swan Theory" says that there are "Black Swan events" that have a major impact on the course of history.

It is assumed that all swans are white, so a black swan (which does in fact exist) is seen as being impossible and unexpected.

This is the same theory behind a "black swan event" - an event that is nearly impossible to predict. An event that is unpredictable and unexpected in even the most detailed and carefully calculated of probability models.

According to Taleb, "Black Swan events" have three characteristics:

1. It is a surprise.
2. It has a major impact.
3. People contend that they expected the event to take place (in hindsight).

Examples of "Black Swan events" would be 9/11, the gulf oil spill, hurricanes, the collapse of Russia or the invention of the Internet.

So we are in the midst of a black swan event. How should we invest. Well, the markets switched to "RISK ON" mid to late last week as fund managers seemed to think we had made it through an October without a significant correction. Earnings were not very positive Google & Apple disappointed.

I currently have no long positions in the portfolio. All our current positions are spreads which are the best way to manage exposure during this type of event. Our $100,000 portfolio has $50,000 invested in the markets with only $5,000 at risk. Meaning if all markets including Gold went to 0 tomorrow the maximum we could lose would by $5,000.

Initially word came out that NYSE would close Monday and algorithmic trading desks outside NY would keep the markets going. Subsequently it was decided that U.S. markets would close. Once markets open we will be shorting the companies that are highly exposed and bargain hunting for top companies that get oversold.

The next 2 months will be the most profitable time of the year for subscribers and private clients so I am offering a 6 month subscription to my video trade alerts for the first 10 subscribers for $479.
 
20% of which will go to the affected people in NY and the East Coast of America.

New Subscribers who availed of the 3 month subscription offer a few weeks ago already took profits on a two week oil bear spread I sent out. This trade expired at maximum profit for a gain of $2000 or 2% portfolio return.

I have 3 new trades for you when the market opens on Tuesday or Wednesday. If you can follow instructions by email and video you will be able to trade and learn.

This offer is only for the first 10 subscribers and expires on market open on Wednesday.

Happy Trading,
Retire Me Rob

No Obligation Trial of my Video Trade Alerts - Last 4 spots available

Dear Investors,

This is your last chance to grab one of the 4 remaining slots for my Video Trade Alert Service at a $150 discount. 3 months of video trade alerts for only US$97, (EUR75, SGD$119) with no obligation to continue the service. This  offer closes at 9PM Singapore time tonight just 30 minutes after market opens. 

10 minutes is all it takes to place any of these trades when you follow my instructional videos. That means 30 mins to 1 hour a week is the maximum time you will need to follow and execute these wining trades. Plus you will be learning how hedge funds manage money. You will learn about simple and complex options, hedging, risk management, portfolio allocation and much much more. 

The 2 trades you will be able to enter tonight are perfectly hedged. Bernake's QE3 instead of adding steroids to the market has left investors cautious, so a sideways move for the next few weeks is the highest probability. 

Trade 1: The first video trade alert guarantees a maximum profit if Gold goes up, sideways or down up to 5% which is below a strong support level for Gold.  

Trade 2: The second video trade alert guarantees a maximum profit if the stock market goes up small, sideways or down short term. This position hedges the Gold position and ensures maximum security of your capital while gaining maximum profit on the traditional October correction or sideways market. If the market does miraculously go straight up our Gold position will go up with it and hedge our portfolio risk. 

This is how all the best hedge funds manage money and you can learn how to trade like them for a tiny fee of $97.

Happy Hedging,

Robert McManus 

Dear Investors,

We are now entering the fun part of the year the Gold season. The recent breakout in Gold brought on by QE3 and hyper driven by the mass strikes of workers in Africa's Gold mines has lead me to add to my Gold position in my client accounts. This evening we will be placing a complex options spread which if Gold goes up, sideways or down up to 5% will expire at maximum profit. This is how the top hedge funds manage money and I have decided to make a video of this trade to walk you through it.

The normal cost of my trade alert service which is up 26.39% this year is US$997 per annum.

To encourage you to try out my new video trade alert service I am offering a 90 day trial to you for $97.

All trades are low - medium risk. Comprising of option spreads, call/put options, ETF's & Stocks. If you are unfamiliar with these types of trades then the video walkthroughs will be very educational for you.

If you are not comfortable with options every trade will come with an alternative Stock, ETF or inverse ETF suggestion.

All trades will be risk adjusted for a $100,000 account. If you are running a $50,000 account or a $10,000 account then you just need to buy half or 1/10th of the contracts I buy. All will be explained in the videos.

Applying The Right Amount Of Leverage at The Right Time

Dear Investors,

Leverage can create great wealth for the Intelligent Investor. However, it works both ways and I have seen many inexperienced investors get wiped out using too much leverage at the wrong time. The volatility we are seeing in the markets over the last 2 years is creating higher returns for investors, the downside of higher returns is higher drawdowns and over leveraged accounts get cleaned out. Brokers don't even lay off high leverage accounts.

My client accounts rarely have more than 50% of the account funds at risk in the market at any time. Leverage is achieved using options with unlimited upside profit potential and the sum at risk is the sum invested. Hedging is used to insure against black swans.

For example back in May this year we were short the market in all but one position. I had an Apple Long Call option with an October 2012 expiry as a hedge. The market sold in May for the third year in a row and clients were rewarded with a 30%+ portfolio return for the month of May. Short positions were closed a few weeks into May to lock in the profits and the Apple call was allowed to run. Apple turned out to be the greatest stock of 2012 so far and gave a 100% return.

We got back into Gold at the start of seasonal strength towards the end of the summer and the crossing of the 200 Day Moving Average a very bullish sign.

The announcement by the Fed of QE3 guarantees Golds run to $3500. Hold onto your Gold buy more if you can but use the right leverage at the right time. October is like May we generally get a stock market correction. However, it would be highly unusual for a big correction so close to an election.

Happy Investing.

Gold Season upon us again

Dear Investors,

Gold season is in full swing again. Gold has rocketed from it's low and the 50 day moving average has been broken. We were short US markets, the Euro for the last few months up until May. June the markets turned and we are long again. It's an election year and the markets will likely rally until October at least. Subscribers will capitalize on specific stock recommendations.

For a free tip buy Gold as it will likely rally alongside the stock market for the next few months. Bullion Vault is where I buy my Gold. There's no additional costs with storage etc. Easy to set up an account and quick turn around times.

http://www.bullionvault.com/#ROBMCMANUS

Best Regards,
Robert McManus

The Abundance Engineer May 2012 - The May Effect Happens Again Like Clockwork

Dear Subscribers,

Global markets went into freefall today. The US market is yet to open but pre market trading is looking like another typical May correction.

As I said last week timing is everything in the markets and the elections in Europe were the catalist this year. Happily we had all our shorts in place last week in anticipation of the high probablilty of a correction. May will likely be one of the best months of the year for our subscribers.

Our largest short position is up 20% and our Euro short position is performing excellently. If you got your trades in last week well done. If not. There are still some good value short positions to take advantage of in our portfolio.

The market works on volatility and this volatility gives rise to additional opportunities. I am adding some additional short term trades to take advantage of the volatility. The Euro hit it's January low today and I have a very low risk trade for our subscribers to take advantage of the Euro situation.

If you have a portfolio that you want to hedge or insure against downside risk you will find the best insurance with our trade alerts.

If you want to learn to make money in the market regardless of what direction it goes you will also learn how to do this subscribing to my trade alerts.

If you have a portfolio whether it be stock, property or currency exposure you are attempting to insure against. Contact me by email for more information on my private 1 on 1 consultancy service specific to your  portfolio.

Best Regards,
Robert McManus  

The Abundance Engineer May 2012 - Can This Man Keep The Market Afloat Until November. Yes We Can

Dear Investors,

The stock market has had an unprecedented run for the last 7 months. Normally we see a correction in May in the markets as I outlined in the last post. The chart below shows that June, July, August and September have been the worst performing months for the S&P 500 Index since 1988. 

Our shorts are in place in anticipation of the usual correction. However, this is a presidential election year in the U.S. and it seems that Obama wants to get in for another term. Looking back over the last 30 years election years have historically produced positive stock market returns. Since 1972, the stock market has rallied in 5 of the 8 election years, according to J.P. Morgan, with market gains of 12-26 percent. Only during recession years (2000 and 2008) did the S&P 500 provide negative returns. 

Therefore to hedge our bets I am adding a long stock position which I will likely hold until the election in November. It is common practice for portfolio managers to take a long position in the most fundamentally sound, undervalued companies with the greatest growth potential which is what I have added to our portfolio. Our short positions with a July expiry will hedge our long position and we will benefit greatly if there is a correction in May or June. If however we do not get a correction our long position will cover any losses on our short hedge. This is how the biggest hedge funds run their office. Low risk. High return. 

To get access to my specific stock recommendations outlined in my posts you can subscribe to my premium stock alerts below. The investment is EUR79.95 per month. 

Best Regards,
Robert McManus

The Abundance Engineer April 2012 - Sell in May

It's that time of year again. For seasoned hedge fund managers this is the time of year when money managers close out their long positions and either move to cash bonds or go short the market. The 1st of May heralds the start of the summer holiday season where very little happens in the stock market. 

Of course like always the average stock market investor with a 401K or a Bank managed fund gets amnesia and forgets the sell in May and go away adage of the market and gets caught long the market while the Bank hedges their clients risk positions and wins once more with the client bearing all the risk and the losses. 

Last year the crash in May was avoided as Osama Bin Laden was "caught" on the highest risk weekend for the stock market the May bank holiday weekend creating a newly invigorated patriotism in America and of course confidence in the stock markets. The crash was delayed until August however even Osama's capture couldn't keep the stock market from falling 10% through to the middle of June.

See chart of the S&P below. 

This May the stock market is only 15 points off it's all time high which was back in October 2007. 2007 being the year we took our funds out of the US market prior to the crash.

The stock market has been on a tear since October and is now at least 20% overbought by the most conservative of estimates. The only thing keeping the stock market up is the fact that it is an election year. The plan seems to be to keep Obama in and Obama's popularity rating is directly proportional to the performance of the S&P 500. 

Whatever trick they may have under their belt for the May weekend this year we will see. However, all the fundamentals and technicals are indicating that we are over extended and due a correction very soon. Couple this with the fact that May is the time of year everyone in the business gets out of Risk assets and you have the perfect storm for a correction. 

The Apple calls that we sold in March expired worthless on Friday for a full profit for us and the 3.4% portfolio return we received on that trade has brought our portfolio performance up to 15.47% for 2012 so far. I have decided to start making the closed trades viewable to everyone on my blog so you can see our performance. New and open trades will only be available to subscribers. 

I have placed 5 new positions in the portfolio this week to capitalize on the May effect. There is something for everyone to invest in whatever your level of Risk or experience.  

If you have long positions on the market these positions will act as a hedge. If you are in cash remember there's more money made on the downside. 

You can get access to my positions and buy and sell alerts here for a monthly fee of 79.95. The performance of this subscription is 15.47% for the first 4 months of 2012 so far. 

Yours Sinceerly,

Robert McManus

Sell Alert Apple

The Apple Calls we sold on 6th March expired yesterday at the maximum profit.

The $600 calls made $975
The $630 calls made $2430

For a total profit of $3,405 a nice portfolio profit of 3.4% bringing our portfolio performance for 2012 up to 15.47%

New Trade Alert AAPL

Due to the success of the April $630 AAPL short trade I have just sold 3 more contracts

Sell Short the Apple (AAPL) April, 2012 $600 calls for $3.25 or best

Symbol:

AAPL 120421C00600000

Contracts: 3

Order Type: Sell Call

Max. Profit Potential on a $100,000 portfolio = 3 x 100 x 3.25 = $975

Best Regards,
Robert McManus

New Trade Alert

It seems Apple has climbed it's wall of worry along with the entire stock market at a time of increasingly terrible economic figures.

I will close the Apple Spread tonight for a net price of $29.65 or best.

To execute this trade you must place two positions simultaneously:

1) Sell The (AAPL) March, 2012 $430 calls at $103.25

2) Buy to cover the short position in the (AAPL) March, 2012 $460 calls at $73.60

It is best to place spread orders in one order ticket that cuts down on order costs.

I am also going to enter a new trade to:

Sell Short the Apple (AAPL) April, 2012 $630 calls for $4.05 or best
• Portfolio weighting: 20% with a 12% delta
• ($20,000/100/$4.05) X 13%= 6 Contracts
• maximum potential profit on April 20, 2012
• ($4.05 X 100 X 6 ) = $2,430, or 2.43% for a $100,000 portfolio

Considering Apple's recent stellar move I do not think it can continue to $630 by April 20th. A breather will be necessary. Our profit is made if it stays below $630 we sell the calls so they will expire worthless and we will get full profit. If Apple does continue to move up we will hedge our bets by entering into a call spread thus limiting our downside risk.   

The second trade is another one on the VIX. Looking at the attached chart of the S&P & VIX. We are due a breather in the S&P and it will likely be sell in May and go away this year again. So you may aswell plan on closing shop and taking a nice summer holiday in May. With your VIX position you will enjoy the greatest return from a stock market correction. 

Buy the IPath S&P 500 Vix Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) at $24.52 or best

·  Portfolio weighting: 10%

·  ($10,000/$24.52) = 410 shares

Sell Alert

I am selling the March Apple 2012 $430-$460 call spread for a net
price of $29.65 or best

We have made a nice profit on this and I'm going to take the money and run.

You will need to place 2 orders to close the position:

1) Sell to close the march, 2012 $430 calls at $103.25

2) Buy to close the short position in the march, 2012 $460 calls at $73.60


Best,
Robert McManus

New Trade Alert

Apple has fallen from $525 to $500 in the last few days. I am looking to do a call spread on Apple the jobless claims were positive news for the fourth week in a row and the market may get some upside from this.

This trade makes the most money when Apple stays above $460. This is to hedge our SDS & BAC positions. If all goes well we will make money on both sides.

If the price goes down we get to buy Apple shares at $463 each. I am extremely happy to buy Apple at $463.

Buy the Apple (AAPL) March, 2012 $430-$460 call spread for a net cost of $26.00.

Portfolio weighting: 10% when in the money
($10,000/100/$26) = 4 Contracts

2 trades are required:

1) Buy 4 x AAPL120317C00430000 at $72.00 or best

2) Sell 4 x AAPL120317C00460000 at $46.00 or best

Total cost 2600 x 4 = $10,400

Best Regards,
Robert McManus

The Abundance Engineer February 2012 - Yoga Will Make You A Great Trader

Headline - Yoga Will Make You A Great Trader

We have entered a binary market of long or short or "Risk On" "Risk Off". Details released this week show that the average hedge fund returned only 1% in 2011. The S&P returned only 0.4%.

It is difficult for hedge funds to change their tack quickly all decisions go to boards of management and need to get approval.

Individual investors have a superior advantage in that they can get in and out of the market quickly. 

We have been long since October and I stated back in December that Apple will be the stock that will break the market. 

From December's Premium Newsletter...

​"I see the big Apple crash coming in March or April. It could be as early as January but unlikely." 

Read Full Newsletter...

In the last week alone Apple has added $75 Billion in market cap. The market now boils down to one stock. Everyone wants a piece of it. I get Y2K Deja Vu all over again.

In March 2000 I sold 85% of my tech stocks 3 weeks before the crash. I did the same in 2007.

Today is similar it is looking more and more like a market top every day. However, there are better and more profittable ways to short the market than to short Apple or the S%P. 

Nothing goes straight up Apple will have to correct.

I sent out a trade alert yesterday to buy puts on a financial stock that has been one of the worst perfoming companies of 2011 for good reason. This stock has added 50% to it's share price in the last few weeks. Volatility works both ways. When the market falls again this stock will likely fall hard and the put premiums will go through the roof.

I also sent out a second trade alert for those learning to trade options.          

Since I started the premium subscription service last July our portfolio is up 18.9% in 7.5 months. That's 2.4% a month or an annualized return of 29.1%. Here is a complete list of all the trades we bought and sold in our portfolio  since July 1st 2011. 

http://www.theabundanceengineer.com/SubscriptionPortfolio.xls

Would you like these kind of returns ?

Owing to the fact that our returns have been so good I am taking this opportunity to incresase the cost of the subscription to 79.95 per month on the 1st March 2012.

I will keep the old price of 59.95 for the rest of the year for all current and new subscribers prior to the 1st March.  

To avail of the old price Subscribe below

One a seperate note one of our subscribers Julie Siebt is running a Yoga and meditation retreat in March in Thailand and asked me to send out some information.

http://www.theabundanceengineer.com/March_2012_poster.pdf

Yours Sinceerly,

Robert McManus