Dear Investors,
It is a terrible thing that is happening in New York right now and along the
East Coast of the U.S. I have sent my best wishes to anyone I know over there.
If anyone reading this is on the East Coast right now I wish you well. I hope
that the hurricane will pass you by safely. Most people I have chatted with
seem to have found shelter in the local pub. The Irish way.
While this may be devastating to many homes and businesses it also represents
the best trading opportunity we can get.
September 11, the Gulf Oil Spill and the numerous hurricanes that have come
and go during my trading career have been the most profitable time for me and
investors who follow me.
It is always my suggestion to trade wisely and donate a % of your profits to
the people in the effected area. That in my opinion is a great way to help the
people who are affected by a natural disaster.
I have committed to giving 20% of all subscription fees and profits to
subscribers and private clients on this database who experience financial loss
as a direct result of this hurricane, please contact me and let me know who you
are.
For subscribers and private clients not affected if you wish to donate a %
of your profits from this event. I will connect you to the relevant parties. No
charities the funds will go direct to the people involved.
How to Profit from a Hurricane
In order to explain this we will have to look at the term "Black Swan
Theory" which was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book
"The Black Swan".
The "Black Swan Theory" says that there are "Black Swan
events" that have a major impact on the course of history.
It is assumed that all swans are white, so a black swan (which does in fact
exist) is seen as being impossible and unexpected.
This is the same theory behind a "black swan event" - an event that
is nearly impossible to predict. An event that is unpredictable and unexpected
in even the most detailed and carefully calculated of probability models.
According to Taleb, "Black Swan events" have three characteristics:
1. It is a surprise.
2. It has a major impact.
3. People contend that they expected the event to take place (in hindsight).
Examples of "Black Swan events" would be 9/11, the gulf oil spill,
hurricanes, the collapse of Russia or the invention of the Internet.
So we are in the midst of a black swan event. How should we invest. Well, the
markets switched to "RISK ON" mid to late last week as fund managers
seemed to think we had made it through an October without a significant
correction. Earnings were not very positive Google & Apple disappointed.
I currently have no long positions in the portfolio. All our current positions
are spreads which are the best way to manage exposure during this type of
event. Our $100,000 portfolio has $50,000 invested in the markets with only
$5,000 at risk. Meaning if all markets including Gold went to 0 tomorrow the
maximum we could lose would by $5,000.
Initially word came out that NYSE would close Monday and algorithmic trading
desks outside NY would keep the markets going. Subsequently it was decided that
U.S. markets would close. Once markets open we will be shorting the companies
that are highly exposed and bargain hunting for top companies that get
oversold.
The next 2 months will be the most profitable time of the year for subscribers
and private clients so I am offering a 6 month subscription to my video trade
alerts for the first 10 subscribers for $479.
20% of which will go to the affected people in NY and the East Coast of
America.
New
Subscribers who availed of the 3 month subscription offer a few weeks
ago already took profits on a two week oil bear spread I sent out. This
trade expired at maximum profit for a gain of $2000 or 2% portfolio
return.
I have 3 new trades for you when the market
opens on Tuesday or Wednesday. If you can follow instructions by email
and video you will be able to trade and learn.
This offer is only for the first 10 subscribers and expires on market open on Wednesday.
Happy Trading,
Retire Me Rob
